Talk about “doubling down” (see here) – it seems the Bank Of England believes that the problem does not lie with the impossibility of accurately forecasting anything, but with their forecasting (in)ability.
There may well be varying degrees of incompetence at the Bank Of England as there are in any institution you care to name.
What is being tacitly acknowledged is that when it comes to the future we just don’t know what is going to happen. And that makes forecasting anything – the weather, economy, football, your nearest and dearest’s mood – a guessing game, an exercise in crystal ball staring.
In much of our life we know this and therefore put little store in them and get on with our lives.
However it seems we expect something different from those in a position of authority and power. We expect them to get it right. Worse yet they think they can get it right. Even worse than that they act as if what they have got it right and act accordingly. All of which is some shade of complete madness.
The answer is not to get perhaps the most expensive economic consultant on the planet involved and pretend somehow the next batch of forecasts will be better. How could they be? The future is still the future and unknown.
The answer should be to simply acknowledge that no forecast can ever be relied on to any extent and are therefore practically worthless.
If we were accept that maybe they will too and then they can commit their time, effort and resources to things other than crystal ball gazing where real, tangible, known benefits can be reaped.
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